Re: Very Active Board

Jul 26, 2007



#4598 Jul 26, 2007

FWIW, I DID notice over the past few days that the charts, particularly

the EFA, were creating the same basic pattern that we saw in February,

prior to the major decline.

I did not mention it as I felt it might create unnecessary fear, and

also because such a formation need not result in the same major decline.

Now that we see that the decline is of, at least, similar proportions,

what do we do? Is it deja vu all over again or something else?

My suggestion is, at this point, to let the markets do what they want to

do, and stay invested. Relax. While we would like the markets to move

in a straight line upward, it is a rare occurrence. The more likely

scenario is a scalloping chart where a large advance is preceded by a

large decline.

We'll continue to monitor the action closely. FWIW, the I and C funds

only crossed below their 50 day today. They are also currently at major

resistance levels. They should hold at about these levels, IMHO.


#4600 Jul 26, 2007

if you've been in the tsp since '88 like i have, you've seen this sort

of heated on-a-dime action a dozen times.

i'm not really going to think about a major shift in strategy unless a

clear and sustained change in the current trends develops. when we

had a similar deline a year ago last may, i opted out into the g fund

and wound up missing out on the huge fall/winter run up. not gonna

make that mistake again.

right now, i'm just chillin' like bob dylan...

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