Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?


Feb 5, 2013

 


----------------------------

#25290 Feb 5, 2013

It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?



Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while. The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest of February.



Comments?



----------------------------

#25292 Feb 5, 2013

I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.



C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term dip

soon.



S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)



If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would be a

late entry.



--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:

>

> It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities

considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping

back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me

- Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?

>

> Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while.

The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and

confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest

of February.

>

> Comments?

>



----------------------------

#25294 Feb 5, 2013

I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while and will move to G.

--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:

>

> I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.

>

> C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term dip

> soon.

>

> S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)

>

> If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would be a

> late entry.

>

>

> --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:

> >

> > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities

> considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping

> back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me

> - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?

> >

> > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while.

> The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and

> confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest

> of February.

> >

> > Comments?

> >

>



----------------------------

#25296 Feb 5, 2013

Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table Monday and todaybought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are beginning to itch to getin, started buying today.��Steve������������������__o ���� ___ \ ,_ ______________ ///_(_)/_(_)__//////

��From: scsi_guruSent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PMTo: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.comSubject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just areversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?



----------------------------

#25300 Feb 5, 2013

Or not.��

--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:>> Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table Monday and today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are beginning to itch to get in, started buying today. > > Steve> __o > ___ \ ,_ ______________ > ///_(_)/_(_)__////// > > From: scsi_guru > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM> To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com > Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?> > > I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while and will move to G.> > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:> >> > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.> > > > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term dip> > soon.> > > > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)> > > > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would be a> > late entry.> > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:> > >> > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities> > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping> > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me> > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?> > >> > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while. > > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and> > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest> > of February.> > >> > > Comments?> > >> >>



----------------------------

#25301 Feb 5, 2013

Remember that there continues to be a considerable amount of smart money

on the sidelines.



As the markets grow, they get itchy.

--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:

>

> Or not. [;)]

>

> --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:

> >

> > Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table Monday

and

> today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are

beginning

> to itch to get in, started buying today.

> >

> > Steve

> > __o

> > ___ \ ,_ ______________

> > ///_(_)/_(_)__//////

> >

> > From: scsi_guru

> > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM

> > To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com

> > Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a

> reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?

> >

> >

> > I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while and

will

> move to G.

> >

> > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:

> > >

> > > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.

> > >

> > > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term

> dip

> > > soon.

> > >

> > > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)

> > >

> > > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would

> be a

> > > late entry.

> > >

> > >

> > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:

> > > >

> > > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities

> > > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about

jumping

> > > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of

worries

> me

> > > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?

> > > >

> > > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a

while.

> > > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does

form

> and

> > > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the

> rest

> > > of February.

> > > >

> > > > Comments?

> > > >

> > >

> >

>







----------------------------

#25305 Feb 6, 2013

I heard over the weekend that there was approximately 77 billion returned back into equities in the past month.�� The largest since 1996, but there is approximately10 Trillion still sitting on the sidelines. �� ��

From: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com [mailto:TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com]On Behalf Of Sarah

Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 6:15 PM

To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com

Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?



----------------------------

#25313 Feb 6, 2013

What chart do you look at for the s fund for 50 day and 200 day moving averages to calculate a head and shoulders?�� What about the c fund? ��

From:TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com [mailto:TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com]On Behalf Of Sarah

Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 6:15 PM

To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com

Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?



----------------------------

#25315 Feb 6, 2013

I use the W4500 to look at the S fund.�� I don't calculate head and shoulders, I either see them or I don't.�� I never looked for head and shoulder patterns in the 50 or 200�� day MA, if that is what you mean.



To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.comFrom: jason.b.collins@...Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2013 19:08:19 +0000Subject: RE: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?

��What chart do you look at for the s fund for 50 day and 200 day moving averages to calculate a head and shoulders?�� What about the c fund?��

From:TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com [mailto:TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com]On Behalf Of Sarah

Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 6:15 PM

To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com

Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?



----------------------------

#25326 Feb 7, 2013

Sarah,

Given that it is as much art as science, are you holding to your 820 resistance level call, or do you think we may have hit resistance a bit lower? Seems like there is some consolidation going on while the markets (i.e. traders) try to figure out where to go. Any thoughts on whether the market will "break out" and continue the upward trend or "break down." I know it's a tough call, especially in this market and economy.



Also, I'm thinking that these roughly .05%-1% swings day to day are not helpful, maybe spooking the general (i.e. retail) investor, of which we are a part. If so that will keep them on the sidelines and keep that big pool of cash there as well. Thoughts?



If they do stay out, I'm thinking that will not be helpful for the continuing advance of the market. I'm thinking retail investors in large part are looking for "the sure thing" or "safe returns" and the swings are not confidence builders in that regard.



Steve





--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:

>

> Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table Monday and today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are beginning to itch to get in, started buying today.

>

> Steve

> __o

> ___ \ ,_ ______________

> ///_(_)/_(_)__//////

>

> From: scsi_guru

> Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM

> To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com

> Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?

>

>

> I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while and will move to G.

>

> --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:

> >

> > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.

> >

> > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term dip

> > soon.

> >

> > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)

> >

> > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would be a

> > late entry.

> >

> >

> > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:

> > >

> > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities

> > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping

> > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me

> > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?

> > >

> > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while.

> > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and

> > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest

> > of February.

> > >

> > > Comments?

> > >

> >

>



----------------------------

#25330 Feb 7, 2013

Looks like head and shoulders to me.

On Feb 7, 2013, at 11:37 AM, "stephenom@..." somont@...> wrote:



��



Sarah,

Given that it is as much art as science, are you holding to your 820 resistance level call, or do you think we may have hit resistance a bit lower? Seems like there is some consolidation going on while the markets (i.e. traders) try to figure out where to go. Any thoughts on whether the market will "break out" and continue the upward trend or "break down." I know it's a tough call, especially in this market and economy.



Also, I'm thinking that these roughly .05%-1% swings day to day are not helpful, maybe spooking the general (i.e. retail) investor, of which we are a part. If so that will keep them on the sidelines and keep that big pool of cash there as well. Thoughts?



If they do stay out, I'm thinking that will not be helpful for the continuing advance of the market. I'm thinking retail investors in large part are looking for "the sure thing" or "safe returns" and the swings are not confidence builders in that regard.



Steve



--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:

>

> Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table Monday and today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are beginning to itch to get in, started buying today.

>

> Steve

> __o

> ___ \ ,_ ______________

> ///_(_)/_(_)__//////

>

> From: scsi_guru

> Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM

> To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com

> Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?

>

>

> I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while and will move to G.

>

> --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:

> >

> > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.

> >

> > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term dip

> > soon.

> >

> > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)

> >

> > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would be a

> > late entry.

> >

> >

> > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:

> > >

> > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities

> > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping

> > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me

> > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?

> > >

> > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while.

> > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and

> > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest

> > of February.

> > >

> > > Comments?

> > >

> >

>







----------------------------

#25332 Feb 7, 2013

Well, let's see.�� The I fund is hitting the resistance area previously discussed.�� I see no head and shoulders formation there.







--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, Ken Willis wrote:>> Looks like head and shoulders to me.> > On Feb 7, 2013, at 11:37 AM, "stephenom@..." wrote:> > > > > > > Sarah, > > Given that it is as much art as science, are you holding to your 820 resistance level call, or do you think we may have hit resistance a bit lower? Seems like there is some consolidation going on while the markets (i.e. traders) try to figure out where to go. Any thoughts on whether the market will "break out" and continue the upward trend or "break down." I know it's a tough call, especially in this market and economy.> > > > Also, I'm thinking that these roughly .05%-1% swings day to day are not helpful, maybe spooking the general (i.e. retail) investor, of which we are a part. If so that will keep them on the sidelines and keep that big pool of cash there as well. Thoughts?> > > > If they do stay out, I'm thinking that will not be helpful for the continuing advance of the market. I'm thinking retail investors in large part are looking for "the sure thing" or "safe returns" and the swings are not confidence builders in that regard.> > > > Steve> > > > --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:> > >> > > Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table Monday and today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are beginning to itch to get in, started buying today. > > > > > > Steve> > > __o > > > ___ \ ,_ ______________ > > > ///_(_)/_(_)__////// > > > > > > From: scsi_guru > > > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM> > > To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com > > > Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?> > > > > > > > > I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while and will move to G.> > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:> > > >> > > > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.> > > > > > > > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term dip> > > > soon.> > > > > > > > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)> > > > > > > > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would be a> > > > late entry.> > > > > > > > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:> > > > >> > > > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities> > > > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping> > > > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me> > > > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?> > > > >> > > > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while. > > > > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and> > > > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest> > > > of February.> > > > >> > > > > Comments?> > > > >> > > >> > >> > > >>



----------------------------

#25333 Feb 7, 2013

I see no head and shoulders formation in the C fund.�� What I do see is a fund that has moved too far too fast, with respect to its previous pace, and is starting to move sideways.�� Whether it will resume an upward track after this respite or move down is too early to say.

The formation predicts a higher move, but the pace has been too fast, IMHO.





--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, Ken Willis wrote:>> Looks like head and shoulders to me.> > On Feb 7, 2013, at 11:37 AM, "stephenom@..." wrote:> > > > > > > Sarah, > > Given that it is as much art as science, are you holding to your 820 resistance level call, or do you think we may have hit resistance a bit lower? Seems like there is some consolidation going on while the markets (i.e. traders) try to figure out where to go. Any thoughts on whether the market will "break out" and continue the upward trend or "break down." I know it's a tough call, especially in this market and economy.> > > > Also, I'm thinking that these roughly .05%-1% swings day to day are not helpful, maybe spooking the general (i.e. retail) investor, of which we are a part. If so that will keep them on the sidelines and keep that big pool of cash there as well. Thoughts?> > > > If they do stay out, I'm thinking that will not be helpful for the continuing advance of the market. I'm thinking retail investors in large part are looking for "the sure thing" or "safe returns" and the swings are not confidence builders in that regard.> > > > Steve> > > > --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:> > >> > > Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table Monday and today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are beginning to itch to get in, started buying today. > > > > > > Steve> > > __o > > > ___ \ ,_ ______________ > > > ///_(_)/_(_)__////// > > > > > > From: scsi_guru > > > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM> > > To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com > > > Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?> > > > > > > > > I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while and will move to G.> > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:> > > >> > > > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.> > > > > > > > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term dip> > > > soon.> > > > > > > > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)> > > > > > > > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would be a> > > > late entry.> > > > > > > > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:> > > > >> > > > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities> > > > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping> > > > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me> > > > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?> > > > >> > > > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while. > > > > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and> > > > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest> > > > of February.> > > > >> > > > > Comments?> > > > >> > > >> > >> > > >>







----------------------------

#25334 Feb 7, 2013

Honestly, I know you've posted pictures of it, but very hard for me to identify where they are on a chart.

When I looked at the chart on the original email, it looked just like one. ��So do you only look for then on longer term charts. ��Is it simply a matter if picking out three recurring peaks that meet about the same resistance levels? ��Also, how good of a predictor is this of future upturns/downturns?

On Feb 7, 2013, at 12:46 PM, "Sarah" sarah_oz@...> wrote:



��Well, let's see.�� The I fund is hitting the resistance area previously discussed.�� I see no head and shoulders formation there.







--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, Ken Willis wrote:>> Looks like head and shoulders to me.> > On Feb 7, 2013, at 11:37 AM, "stephenom@..." wrote:> > > > > > > Sarah, > > Given that it is as much art as science, are you holding to your 820 resistance level call, or do you think we may have hit resistance a bit lower? Seems like there is some consolidation going on while the markets (i.e. traders) try to figure out where to go. Any thoughts on whether the market will "break out" and continue the upward trend or "break down." I know it's a tough call, especially in this market and economy.> > > > Also, I'm thinking that these roughly .05%-1% swings day to day are not helpful, maybe spooking the general (i.e. retail) investor, of which we are a part. If so that will keep them on the sidelines and keep that big pool of cash there as well. Thoughts?> > > > If they do stay out, I'm thinking that will not be helpful for the continuing advance of the market. I'm thinking retail investors in large part are looking for "the sure thing" or "safe returns" and the swings are not confidence builders in that regard.> > > > Steve> > > > --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:> > >> > > Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table Monday and today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are beginning to itch to get in, started buying today. > > > > > > Steve> > > __o > > > ___ \ ,_ ______________ > > > ///_(_)/_(_)__////// > > > > > > From: scsi_guru > > > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM> > > To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com > > > Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?> > > > > > > > > I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while and will move to G.> > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:> > > >> > > > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.> > > > > > > > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term dip> > > > soon.> > > > > > > > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)> > > > > > > > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would be a> > > > late entry.> > > > > > > > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:> > > > >> > > > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities> > > > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping> > > > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me> > > > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?> > > > >> > > > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while. > > > > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and> > > > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest> > > > of February.> > > > >> > > > > Comments?> > > > >> > > >> > >> > > >>



----------------------------

#25336 Feb 7, 2013

IMHO, the S fund predicts a 41% move up from its January 2011 levels, over about 3 years.�� The final goal of this move would be around 1110.�� Shorter term, it predicts a 30% move up from January 2013 over slightly less than two years.�� 820 is the currently predicted resting spot....to be reached in March.

No, I'm sorry, but I see no head and shoulders.�� Do you?What I do see is that the positive rate of change has been declining.











--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, Ken Willis wrote:>> Looks like head and shoulders to me.> > On Feb 7, 2013, at 11:37 AM, "stephenom@..." wrote:> > > > > > > Sarah, > > Given that it is as much art as science, are you holding to your 820 resistance level call, or do you think we may have hit resistance a bit lower? Seems like there is some consolidation going on while the markets (i.e. traders) try to figure out where to go. Any thoughts on whether the market will "break out" and continue the upward trend or "break down." I know it's a tough call, especially in this market and economy.> > > > Also, I'm thinking that these roughly .05%-1% swings day to day are not helpful, maybe spooking the general (i.e. retail) investor, of which we are a part. If so that will keep them on the sidelines and keep that big pool of cash there as well. Thoughts?> > > > If they do stay out, I'm thinking that will not be helpful for the continuing advance of the market. I'm thinking retail investors in large part are looking for "the sure thing" or "safe returns" and the swings are not confidence builders in that regard.> > > > Steve> > > > --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:> > >> > > Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table Monday and today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are beginning to itch to get in, started buying today. > > > > > > Steve> > > __o > > > ___ \ ,_ ______________ > > > ///_(_)/_(_)__////// > > > > > > From: scsi_guru > > > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM> > > To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com > > > Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?> > > > > > > > > I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while and will move to G.> > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:> > > >> > > > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.> > > > > > > > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term dip> > > > soon.> > > > > > > > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)> > > > > > > > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would be a> > > > late entry.> > > > > > > > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:> > > > >> > > > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities> > > > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping> > > > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me> > > > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?> > > > >> > > > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while. > > > > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and> > > > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest> > > > of February.> > > > >> > > > > Comments?> > > > >> > > >> > >> > > >>







----------------------------

#25340 Feb 7, 2013

S fund to 1110 by January 2014? .That's crazy. .That would be a 40% increase from where we are today? .Do you think that is reasonable? .I don't.

On Thu, Feb 7, 2013 at 2:13 PM, Sarah sarah_oz@...> wrote:

.IMHO, the S fund predicts a 41% move up from its January 2011 levels, over about 3 years.. The final goal of this move would be around 1110.. Shorter term, it predicts a 30% move up from January 2013 over slightly less than two years.. 820 is the currently predicted resting spot....to be reached in March.

No, I'm sorry, but I see no head and shoulders.. Do you?What I do see is that the positive rate of change has been declining.













--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, Ken Willis wrote:>> Looks like head and shoulders to me.> > On Feb 7, 2013, at 11:37 AM, "stephenom@..." wrote:

> > > > > > > Sarah, > > Given that it is as much art as science, are you holding to your 820 resistance level call, or do you think we may have hit resistance a bit lower? Seems like there is some consolidation going on while the markets (i.e. traders) try to figure out where to go. Any thoughts on whether the market will "break out" and continue the upward trend or "break down." I know it's a tough call, especially in this market and economy.

> > > > Also, I'm thinking that these roughly .05%-1% swings day to day are not helpful, maybe spooking the general (i.e. retail) investor, of which we are a part. If so that will keep them on the sidelines and keep that big pool of cash there as well. Thoughts?

> > > > If they do stay out, I'm thinking that will not be helpful for the continuing advance of the market. I'm thinking retail investors in large part are looking for "the sure thing" or "safe returns" and the swings are not confidence builders in that regard.

> > > > Steve> > > > --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:> > >> > > Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table Monday and today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are beginning to itch to get in, started buying today.

> > > > > > Steve> > > __o > > > ___ \ ,_ ______________ > > > ///_(_)/_(_)__////// > > > > > > From: scsi_guru > > > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM

> > > To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com > > > Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just a reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?

> > > > > > > > > I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while and will move to G.> > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:

> > > >> > > > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.> > > > > > > > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a short term dip> > > > soon.

> > > > > > > > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion. (820?)> > > > > > > > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This would be a

> > > > late entry.> > > > > > > > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71" wrote:

> > > > >> > > > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to equities> > > > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about jumping> > > > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of worries me

> > > > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right shoulder?> > > > >> > > > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a while. > > > > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders does form and

> > > > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay out the rest> > > > of February.> > > > >> > > > > Comments?> > > > >

> > > >> > >> > > >>



----------------------------

#25341 Feb 7, 2013

I see that I made an error. Let me correct....



It predicts a 59% move up from February 2011 levels over about 3.5 years

(to Aug 2014). Or, about 16% per annum. I agree that would be higher

than the norm. But understand also that the past 10 years was far

lower than the norm.



It predicts a 30% move up from January 2013 over about 2 years. That's

about 15% per year.



--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, Timothy Cardiasmenos wrote:

>

> S fund to 1110 by January 2014? That's crazy. That would be a 40%

> increase from where we are today? Do you think that is reasonable? I

> don't.

>

>

> On Thu, Feb 7, 2013 at 2:13 PM, Sarah wrote:

>

> > **

> >

> >

> > IMHO, the S fund predicts a 41% move up from its January 2011

levels, over

> > about 3 years. The final goal of this move would be around 1110.

Shorter

> > term, it predicts a 30% move up from January 2013 over slightly less

than

> > two years. 820 is the currently predicted resting spot....to be

reached in

> > March.

> >

> > No, I'm sorry, but I see no head and shoulders. Do you?

> > What I do see is that the positive rate of change has been

declining.

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> > --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, Ken Willis wrote:

> > >

> > > Looks like head and shoulders to me.

> > >

> > > On Feb 7, 2013, at 11:37 AM, "stephenom@" wrote:

> > >

> > > >

> > > >

> > > > Sarah,

> > > > Given that it is as much art as science, are you holding to your

820

> > resistance level call, or do you think we may have hit resistance a

bit

> > lower? Seems like there is some consolidation going on while the

markets

> > (i.e. traders) try to figure out where to go. Any thoughts on

whether the

> > market will "break out" and continue the upward trend or "break

down." I

> > know it's a tough call, especially in this market and economy.

> > > >

> > > > Also, I'm thinking that these roughly .05%-1% swings day to day

are

> > not helpful, maybe spooking the general (i.e. retail) investor, of

which we

> > are a part. If so that will keep them on the sidelines and keep that

big

> > pool of cash there as well. Thoughts?

> > > >

> > > > If they do stay out, I'm thinking that will not be helpful for

the

> > continuing advance of the market. I'm thinking retail investors in

large

> > part are looking for "the sure thing" or "safe returns" and the

swings are

> > not confidence builders in that regard.

> > > >

> > > > Steve

> > > >

> > > > --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:

> > > > >

> > > > > Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table

Monday

> > and today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are

beginning

> > to itch to get in, started buying today.

> > > > >

> > > > > Steve

> > > > > __o

> > > > > ___ \ ,_ ______________

> > > > > ///_(_)/_(_)__//////

> > > > >

> > > > > From: scsi_guru

> > > > > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM

> > > > > To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com

> > > > > Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or

just a

> > reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?

> > > > >

> > > > >

> > > > > I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while

and

> > will move to G.

> > > > >

> > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:

> > > > > >

> > > > > > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.

> > > > > >

> > > > > > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a

short term

> > dip

> > > > > > soon.

> > > > > >

> > > > > > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion.

(820?)

> > > > > >

> > > > > > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This

would

> > be a

> > > > > > late entry.

> > > > > >

> > > > > >

> > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71"

wrote:

> > > > > > >

> > > > > > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to

equities

> > > > > > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about

> > jumping

> > > > > > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of

> > worries me

> > > > > > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right

shoulder?

> > > > > > >

> > > > > > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a

> > while.

> > > > > > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders

does

> > form and

> > > > > > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay

out the

> > rest

> > > > > > of February.

> > > > > > >

> > > > > > > Comments?

> > > > > > >

> > > > > >

> > > > >

> > > >

> > > >

> > >

> >

> >

> >

>







----------------------------

#25342 Feb 7, 2013

Much more reasonable :)

On Thu, Feb 7, 2013 at 2:55 PM, Sarah sarah_oz@...> wrote:

.I see that I made an error. Let me correct....



It predicts a 59% move up from February 2011 levels over about 3.5 years

(to Aug 2014). Or, about 16% per annum. I agree that would be higher

than the norm. But understand also that the past 10 years was far

lower than the norm.



It predicts a 30% move up from January 2013 over about 2 years. That's

about 15% per year.



--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, Timothy Cardiasmenos wrote:

>

> S fund to 1110 by January 2014? That's crazy. That would be a 40%

> increase from where we are today? Do you think that is reasonable? I

> don't.

>

>

> On Thu, Feb 7, 2013 at 2:13 PM, Sarah wrote:

>

> > **

> >

> >

> > IMHO, the S fund predicts a 41% move up from its January 2011

levels, over

> > about 3 years. The final goal of this move would be around 1110.

Shorter

> > term, it predicts a 30% move up from January 2013 over slightly less

than

> > two years. 820 is the currently predicted resting spot....to be

reached in

> > March.

> >

> > No, I'm sorry, but I see no head and shoulders. Do you?

> > What I do see is that the positive rate of change has been

declining.

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> > --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, Ken Willis wrote:

> > >

> > > Looks like head and shoulders to me.

> > >

> > > On Feb 7, 2013, at 11:37 AM, "stephenom@" wrote:

> > >

> > > >

> > > >

> > > > Sarah,

> > > > Given that it is as much art as science, are you holding to your

820

> > resistance level call, or do you think we may have hit resistance a

bit

> > lower? Seems like there is some consolidation going on while the

markets

> > (i.e. traders) try to figure out where to go. Any thoughts on

whether the

> > market will "break out" and continue the upward trend or "break

down." I

> > know it's a tough call, especially in this market and economy.

> > > >

> > > > Also, I'm thinking that these roughly .05%-1% swings day to day

are

> > not helpful, maybe spooking the general (i.e. retail) investor, of

which we

> > are a part. If so that will keep them on the sidelines and keep that

big

> > pool of cash there as well. Thoughts?

> > > >

> > > > If they do stay out, I'm thinking that will not be helpful for

the

> > continuing advance of the market. I'm thinking retail investors in

large

> > part are looking for "the sure thing" or "safe returns" and the

swings are

> > not confidence builders in that regard.

> > > >

> > > > Steve

> > > >

> > > > --- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, "Steve" wrote:

> > > > >

> > > > > Looks like perhaps the bulls took some money off the table

Monday

> > and today bought back in, or the retail buyers who reportedly are

beginning

> > to itch to get in, started buying today.

> > > > >

> > > > > Steve

> > > > > __o

> > > > > ___ \ ,_ ______________

> > > > > ///_(_)/_(_)__//////

> > > > >

> > > > > From: scsi_guru

> > > > > Sent: Tuesday, February 05, 2013 4:45 PM

> > > > > To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com

> > > > > Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or

just a

> > reversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?

> > > > >

> > > > >

> > > > > I'm hoping the S gets to 820...if it does I'm out for a while

and

> > will move to G.

> > > > >

> > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "Sarah" wrote:

> > > > > >

> > > > > > I fund is bullish but hitting resistance now.

> > > > > >

> > > > > > C fund is bullish long term but you should anticipate a

short term

> > dip

> > > > > > soon.

> > > > > >

> > > > > > S fund has a bit more to go before reaching exhaustion.

(820?)

> > > > > >

> > > > > > If you're trying to time an early entry, this isn't it. This

would

> > be a

> > > > > > late entry.

> > > > > >

> > > > > >

> > > > > > --- In mailto:TSP_Strategy%40yahoogroups.com, "rarch71"

wrote:

> > > > > > >

> > > > > > > It has been difficult for me to time my reentry to

equities

> > > > > > considering the recent slow but steady rise. I thought about

> > jumping

> > > > > > back in today after yesterday's rise but the pattern kind of

> > worries me

> > > > > > - Has a head formed and is the market forming a right

shoulder?

> > > > > > >

> > > > > > > Who knows? I think I may still stay on the sidelines for a

> > while.

> > > > > > The flip side of that is that even if a head and shoulders

does

> > form and

> > > > > > confirm I still can get back out - just would have to stay

out the

> > rest

> > > > > > of February.

> > > > > > >

> > > > > > > Comments?

> > > > > > >

> > > > > >

> > > > >

> > > >

> > > >

> > >

> >

> >

> >

>







----------------------------

#25349 Feb 7, 2013

Sarah said: It predicts a 59% move up from February 2011 levels over about 3.5 years

(to Aug 2014). Or, about 16% per annum. I agree that would be higher

than the norm. But understand also that the past 10 years was far

lower than the norm.



It predicts a 30% move up from January 2013 over about 2 years. That's

about 15% per year.



THAT would make me a happy camper!



Gayle



----------------------------

#25350 Feb 7, 2013

I would honestly prefer a lower, more sustained average, but as long as I don't have much trouble maintaining an average rate of return of 10% or more I am still happy..Allen.

On Fri, Feb 8, 2013 at 11:38 AM, Gayle T dollhousefreak@...> wrote:

.Sarah said: It predicts a 59% move up from February 2011 levels over about 3.5 years

(to Aug 2014). Or, about 16% per annum. I agree that would be higher

than the norm. But understand also that the past 10 years was far

lower than the norm.



It predicts a 30% move up from January 2013 over about 2 years. That's

about 15% per year.



THAT would make me a happy camper!



Gayle



----------------------------

#25353 Feb 8, 2013

That's why so many loved Bernie Madoff.�� He provided consistent returns.��

--- In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, Allen Green wrote:>> I would honestly prefer a lower, more sustained average, but as long as I> don't have much trouble maintaining an average rate of return of 10% or> more I am still happy.> > Allen> > On Fri, Feb 8, 2013 at 11:38 AM, Gayle T wrote:> > > **> >> >> > Sarah said: It predicts a 59% move up from February 2011 levels over about> > 3.5 years> >> > (to Aug 2014). Or, about 16% per annum. I agree that would be higher> > than the norm. But understand also that the past 10 years was far> > lower than the norm.> >> > It predicts a 30% move up from January 2013 over about 2 years. That's> > about 15% per year.> >> > THAT would make me a happy camper!> >> > Gayle> >> > > >>



----------------------------

#25368 Feb 7, 2013

.What I do see isthat the positive rate of change has been declining.. ��Which would be expected since physics orfinance, it would be folly to expect a rapid ascent to continue ad infinitum.The faster and higher it goes, the sooner it must reach equilibrium. Well,sounds right anyway. ��Steve������������������__o ���� ___ \ ,_ ______________ ///_(_)/_(_)__//////

��From: SarahSent: Thursday, February 07, 2013 2:13 PMTo: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.comSubject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Head and shoulders starting or just areversion to a bull trend after a hiccup?



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